With the Ukraine war Russia began to experience great losses in many bilateral relations when Russian president Vladimir Putin embarked on the Ukraine war he never thought he would lose. For this reason he did not think that he would a problems with ny of his allies . However at this point many of his allies have turned back on Putin . The most recent of these allies seems to be
North Korea . It seems that North Korea which Putin thought for a long time developed good relation suddennly turned its bacon Russia . The fact that North Korea which is stated to provided serious armed support to the Wagner Group in the Ukraine war . Rejects these claims and says that it does not help Russia in anyway maybe indications of Russia disappointment .
Claims that North Korea gave support to Russia came from the United States . Washington earlier this month designated the Wagner Group as an international criminal organisation . Citing arms deal with Pyongyang that violate related UN security council resolutions . According to national security spokesman Jhon Kirby the White House showed US intelligence photos of
Russian wagons as they entered North Korea and received the cargo infantry rocket and missiles and returned to Russia. In a statement released by the official Korean central new agency a senior of North Korean officials denied the accusations warning that if the United States continues to spread the self-made rumor it will face a truly undesirable outcomes.
Quan Zhong director general of North Korea US department of state said that attempting the tarnish North Korea image by fabricating something that does not exit a serious provocation that never allowed and has no choice but to trigger his reaction . He also described it as a foolish attempt to justify the an arms offer to Ukraine . Apart from Syria and Russia North Korea is
The only country to recognise in eastern Ukraine the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk two Russian-backed separatists regions. However at this point it seems that North Korea has withdrawn its support from Russia. China which Putin trust has not provided any support to Russia anyway and now North Korea claims that its not involved in Russia war in Ukraine
As is supposed at the same time . According to some intelligence report its claim that North Korea has reacted seriously against Russia due to the situation that russia has brought down meanwhile it stated that North Korea has learned great lesson from Putin war. I wonder if Putin lost one of his last two allies after China far east and Caucasian countries. Putin was able to get
Military ammunition and weapon support from Iran and recently Iran has also in trouble and has been subjected to a series of internal rebellions clashes and most recently a series of air strike . We have collected and interpreted these footnotes one by one for you . At this point lets examine together what conclusions North Korea has made and how even North Korea has
Turned its back on Russia. The year 2022 when the world hopes to recover from Covid-19 had a bleak start due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine . Every country in the world is affected by the Ukrainian war and is learning a lesson . North Korea is no exception whats lesson to Kim Jong Un learn from Ukraine incident . Putin approval rating has increased since the invasion of
Ukraine began . The approval rate which was 65 % in the December 2021 reached 84% immediately after the invasion and remind at 79 % in November . Putin had previously seen his approval rating rise to 80% after the the annexation of Crimea but by the end of 20113 it had dropped to 60 % it is the result of confirmation of the stall war theory that domestic political
Instability and dissatisfaction can not be channeled outward . The consequences of the war which increased the dictator internal support could have taught Kim-Jong-un an important lesson . Kim Jong-un can use military provocations to alleviate the responsibility and burden of social grievances and instability from the intensifying the economics difficulties and dictatorship
due to Covid-19. On the contrary if Putin is to be held responsible for the causes and consequnces of war in the future Kim Jobg un will also be concerned about the consequences of the war also distracting provocations if handled poorly can over time lead to further internal instability and satisfaction especially among kim regime supporters . The international community must work
Together to draw fair lessons for North Korea . Another prominent point in the Ukrainian war was the importances of military capability with the war raging for over 1 1 months both the Ukraine and Russia are addressing issues with their ability to wage war . Despite its intial military dominance Russia is fighting a protracted war eventually Russia declared a mobilization
Order and prepared additional troops but shortages of arms and ammunition were reported . On the other hand Ukraine which has significant military deficit compared to Russia is waging war with a military and economic support of its allies including the USA . The war in Ukraine also emphasized to North Korea that military strength is still a key element of national strength .
North Korea will learn from Russia lack of fighting combat capabilities its military misjudgments and mistakes and Ukraine willingness to wage the war support from the international community and integrating civilian elements to bridage the military gap. In addition Korea will learn from the economically interdependent Russia and Europe about the vulnerabilities to the
Economic pressure brought by deep economic ties . All this will likely encourage North Korea to further develop its own military capabilities while reducing its dependence on other as much as possible . Russia effectively occupied Crimea in 2014 wagaing hybrid warfare but Ukraine use of hybrid warfare in the current conflict is quite remarkable . Cyber resilience and empowering
Political psychological warfare the use of low-cost weapons system and commercial technologies and the integration of public information and private assests are representative example s meanwhile Ukraine and the west are preparing for Russia hybrid offensive and successfully running their own hybrid warfare defense . North Korea may have learned a lesson from Russia hybrid warfare . This is because hybrid warfare can give the attacker an advantage over the
Defender expanding the gray areas that can be used and gaining an advantage while maximizing asymmetry . On the other hand another lesson is that hybrid warfare did not show great result in the Ukrainian war because the combination of tools used once was ineffective . It was noteworthy that South Korea is developed stamina and defensive capabilities t prevent North Korea strategic
Unification being warae of this narrowing gap between North Korea asymmetrical capabilities and south Korea increasing resilience could push Pyongyang to take advantage of still having an advantage. President Putin has talk about the possibility of using nuclear weapons since the beginning of the war . On February 27th the fourth day of the war invasion president Vladimir
Putin placed Russia nuclear deterrence on high alert . The USCIA director evaluated that Russia could use tactical or low level nuclear weapons as a last resort . Whenever Russia is at a disobey advantage it increase the pressure with this nuclear card and Russia nuclear shadow covers all of Europe . North Korea sees the impact of nuclear forcing which previously remained at the
theoretical level if Russia lower the threshold and use nuclear weapons . North Korea will lower the threshold for its own use of nuclear weapons . On the other hand if Russia does not use nuclear weapons and the war ends North Korea will find reason to oppose the current situation where Russia is reluctant to use nuclear weapons . Many statements by North Korea which
Strengthened its rhetoric in 2002 by referring to the preventative use of nuclear weapons also support this perception however north Korea new nuclear policy is likely driven by other factors as well . Outside of the war a traingle has formed between North Korea, China and Russia . It is debated whether the US Chinese strategic rivalry resembles the cold between the
US and the Soviet Union but the Ukrainian war ended and warned of a new cold the United States reaffirmed Russia as the immediate threat and China as its only rival in its national security strategy 2002 saying that the most pressing strategic challenge facing their vision comes from forces layering authoritarian governance with a revisionist foreign policy .
ANTO formed a strong front against Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war and in the indo-pacific region the United front centered on Austrailia , Japan and South Korea is slowly taking shape to counter China. North Korea will also learned various lesson from this war and try to overcome the current difficult situation it faces at homes and abroad . In terms of the ROK
US alliance effort will need to be made to reinforce opportunistic actions and to ensure that North Korea does not simply learn lessons in its favor by misunderstanding or misjudging the current situation .
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